2025 Unwrapped

AI Mickey Mouse. Broadcom’s ($AVGO) mystery US$10B customer. Oracle’s ($ORCL) US$150B single-day slide. 

These were just some of the headlines dominating markets last week as investors unpacked what Disney’s ($DIS) US$1B stake in OpenAI meant for the future – particularly one that’s centred around AI as Oracle’s revenue miss and Broadcom’s optimistic outlook failed to impress and dragged the tech sector lower.

The S&P 500 and Dow hitting new records amid a Nasdaq slide might seem counterintuitive, but it's a sign that investors are finally rotating out of tech. So what is the bigger picture? No better way to find out than a recap of the biggest themes driving markets in 2025.

AI’s wide open

Everyone was buying AI this year. It wasn’t just you and your mates. It was probably your insurance company too. Institutional demand for AI soared as U.S. insurers bought US$2.4M of Nvidia ($NVDA), Microsoft ($MSFT), Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Meta ($META) each day in the last three months. 

See, consistent AI-related buying defined 2025. A short-lived scare from Chinese startup DeepSeek couldn’t really shake the trend either, particularly after the Trump administration unveiled Stargate – a US$500B, four-year joint venture bringing the biggest tech firms together to build AI infrastructure.

It put the pressure on tech titans to deliver perfection each earnings season. Most of the time, they brought the muscle: the tech sector returned 23.8%, beating the S&P 500’s 17% YTD gain.

TACO loses spice

First came Trump’s tariffs on China and Mexico that led to a Nasdaq whipsaw. The risk-off sentiment intensified and led to 15% VIX spikes over fears of a more serious tariff regime. Then came the aftershock of Liberation Day, which wiped US$6.6 trillion from Wall Street in its worst-ever 48-hour period.

But a tariff ‘pause’ shortly after resulted in one of the largest single-day rallies, benefiting the masters of the tech universe the most. The constant trade policy backflips created a winning trading strategy: TACO – short for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’ It became so popular that, at one point, it wasn’t even profitable anymore because everyone had the same idea.

DATs not good

Strategy ($MSTR) was denied entry into the 500 Club, but its playbook for setting up a digital asset treasury (DAT) was heavily adopted this year. There’s now over 209 public companies with Bitcoin stacked balance sheets, but most of their holdings are underwater, with Bitcoin dropping below US$90,000.

It's a similar story for Ethereum treasury firms like SharpLink Gaming ($SBET) and BitMine Immersion ($BMNR). When Ether lost momentum, so did their share prices. With a median price decline of 43% as we approach year-end…DATs are not looking so good.

Roundtrips and exits

Price action was choppy on more than one occasion in 2025. There was a valuation boomerang in July after a March whipsaw, only for animal spirits to take over in September. We also had a meme stock squeeze in July and then a big reversal in October. 

Amid a series of roundtrips and downgrades, we saw two major Wall Street forces head for the doors. This year marked the ending of Warren Buffett’s – aka Oracle of Omaha – time at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B). He signed off around the same time famous contrarian Michael Burry – aka Cassandra – shut down his fund, Scion Asset Management. 

What’s next?

The AI boom has well and truly gotten going. But investors may want to think not just about diversifying outside the sector, but within it. Critical minerals matter. So do the firms that power data centres. 

In the era of seemingly infinite AI spending, differentiation within the value chain may matter more than exposure to the theme itself. 

This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in the securities listed. The information presented is intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.