Under the Spotlight: Mineral Resources ($MIN)

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The upcoming SpaceX IPO might be the show-stealer, but back on planet Earth, Aussie miners are having their own liftoff moment. Among them is iron ore and lithium producer Mineral Resources ($MIN), whose share price has surged 212% in the last 12 months.

This time last year, MinRes was one of Australia’s most heavily shorted stocks. Its commodities divisions were losing money, leadership was embroiled in controversy and debt was piling up. The share price and earnings turnaround since then has been astronomical.

This week, the company doubled down on that recovery, committing $490M to expand its Mt Marion lithium mine in Western Australia. The news sent its share price to a fresh two-year high.

Let’s put the firm under the spotlight.

Bold bets

MinRes is not your typical miner, and its founder is not your typical mining boss. Chris Ellison, a Kiwi-born high school dropout, built the company from a small crushing contractor in the early 90s into one of Australia’s most diversified resources businesses.

He started by offering rock-crushing services to miners with no upfront costs. By removing that upfront cost – a risky move by any measure – Ellison made it easier for cash-strapped miners to get started.

The bet paid off and eventually funded another risky venture into abandoned iron ore mines. These too took off during China’s construction boom in the early 2000s. When prices later fell, MIN pivoted to lithium, picking up two projects that would prove pivotal: Mt Marion and Wodgina. 

Today, MinRes earns revenue across three key segments: Mining Services, Iron Ore and Lithium. Ellison has a fascinating backstory. You can hear about it here.

Crushing it

For all its evolution, MinRes is still, at its core, a crushing business.

Last year, MIN’s Mining Services segment, which includes crushing, was the only profitable division, generating $379M in underlying earnings in H1 FY2025.

A year later, all three key business segments are profitable, with Iron Ore delivering $573M in earnings in H1 FY2026, Mining Services $488M and Lithium $167M. That took total group EBITDA from $302M to $1.2B, with total revenue of $3.1B.

It marked the strongest six-month performance in company history.

While Mining Services revenue fell slightly year-on-year, from $1.7B to $1.5B, EBITDA grew 29%, driven largely by the Onslow Iron haul road, which generated $144M in toll revenue.

The segment gives MinRes a cushion against commodity volatility because it generates reliable cash flow regardless of prices. That matters when you’re carrying US$4.8B in debt. More on that below.

What's driving growth

The Onslow Iron operation in the Pilbara has been the standout performer, contributing $519M of the $573M in Iron Ore earnings in H1 FY2026.

Onslow is a remote Pilbara operation that required MinRes to build its own 150km private haul road from mine to port. That enormous feat, which cost billions and took years, is now running at full capacity with costs well below guidance.

On the Lithium side, MinRes has approved a $490M expansion of Mt Marion, involving a flotation plant and underground mining to reach deeper, high-grade ore. The company expects the amount of lithium extracted from each tonne of ore to improve by 70%, with the investment expected to pay for itself in under a year once operational.

MinRes also confirmed in May 2026 that it’s restarting its Bald Hill lithium mine, potentially adding up to 165K tonnes a year of spodumene concentrate – processed lithium ore – to the pipeline.

The timing makes sense. Lithium prices have staged an impressive recovery since their multi-year lows in early 2025. MinRes achieved an average price of US$2,105 per tonne for its processed lithium ore in the March quarter, up 92% on the prior quarter.

Debts and diesel

One of the bigger concerns is debt. MinRes carries $4.9B in net debt, which limits flexibility and increases its exposure if commodity prices soften.

A pending sale of a 30% stake in MinRes’ lithium arm to South Korea’s POSCO for around $1.2B is expected to help ease balance sheet pressure, but completion has been pushed into H1 FY2027.

Diesel costs are also a near-term issue, with higher fuel prices set to push delivery and transport costs higher in the June quarter. Ord Minnett estimates a cost impact of $4 – $7 per tonne on iron ore and $60 per tonne on lithium.

Then there’s Ellison himself. He’s a proven dealmaker but also a known risk-taker, and that’s before you get to the tax evasion scandal. A lot rides on how he allocates capital from Onslow and Marion as they ramp up. That’s either a highlight or a worry, depending on your view.

Buy or sell?

MinRes has real things going for it: a diversified business, growing lithium and iron ore operations, and a founder with a track record of making bold calls pay off.

Sentiment among analysts is broadly positive. Of 12 broker ratings on LSEG, seven are buys. UBS is among the bullish, holding a buy rating with an $83 target as of early May. Ord Minnett recently trimmed its rating from Buy to Accumulate on valuation but lifted its target to $67. Most new analyst ratings came ahead of the Mt Marion and Bald Hill updates.

But the debt load is significant, lithium prices remain volatile and much is still a work in progress. The POSCO deal closing and continued balance sheet improvement are key things to watch. As always, consider your own circumstances before making any investment decisions.

This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in the securities listed. The information presented is intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.

Kylie Purcell

Senior Markets Commentator

Kylie Purcell is an investments analyst and finance journalist with over a decade of experience covering global markets, investment products and digital assets. Her commentary has been featured in publications including the Australian Financial Review, Yahoo Finance and The Motley Fool. She has a Masters Degree in International Journalism from Cardiff University and a Certificate of Securities and Managed Investments (RG146).