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A tractor ploughing a wheat field during the day.
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Where's the wheat?

Have you noticed a price bump at your local pub’s menu? Or maybe it’s the loaf of bread that’s making you dig around for coins. It all comes down to the ‘I’ word all over the media. Inflation.

While a number of factors drive this trend, food prices are a significant pain point, and that’s largely due to wheat prices rising 86% between January 2020 and September 2022. Just think: pretty much every delicious carb you treat yourself to on cheat day (or any day, we won’t judge) needs wheat in it. In fact, between January and October 2021, it was the world’s most popular food and accounted for 18.5% of the total human calorie intake. 

Between January 2020 and January 2022, wheat prices went up 20% due to heatwaves, droughts and logistic problems that put strain on the global supply. That was bad enough, but things got worse with the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which may be a small country but it accounts for 9% of the world’s wheat supply. As of 9 June 2022, 30% of Ukraine's farmland was either under occupation or temporarily unusable. 

So not only is it hard to farm the wheat right now, but it's even harder to get it out due to Russia's blockade of the Black Sea, halting 85% of Ukraine’s wheat shipping capacity. With the war ongoing, building additional rail capacity to replace the Black Sea shipping is proving difficult. This means the majority of Ukraine’s wheat is sat in silos, causing the United Nations to put world wheat inventories at 33% of annual consumption.

That’s what really shot up the price of wheat. The situation is improving, and Russia kept its July wheat shipment deal, allowing prices to decline 14% from their highs. But the war is not over yet and Russia is estimated to have destroyed 2.3m tonnes of wheat and stolen a further 6.2m tonnes out of 58m tonnes of storage capacity. Until the invasion is resolved – and also India removes its May 2022 wheat export ban – prices will likely remain volatile. So don’t expect to spend less dough on bread anytime soon. 


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Stakeshop Pty Ltd, trading as Stake, ACN 610105505, is an authorised representative (Authorised Representative No. 1241398) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (Australian Financial Services Licence No. 337927) ('Sanlam') and an authorised representative (Authorised Representative No. 1241398) of Airwallex Pty Ltd (Australian Financial Services Licence No. 487221) ('Airwallex'). Stake is not authorised by Airwallex under Airwallex’s AFSL to arrange for clients to be issued with securities as Airwallex is not authorised under its AFSL for this purpose. Stake is not authorised by Sanlam under Sanlam’s AFSL to arrange for clients to be issued with a non-cash payment facility as Sanlam is not authorised under its AFSL for this purpose. Stake SMSF Pty Ltd (‘Stake Super’) is not licensed to provide financial product advice under the Corporations Act. This specifically applies to any financial products which are established if you instruct Stake Super to set up a self managed super fund (‘SMSF’). When you sign up to Stake Super, you are contracting with Stake SMSF Pty Ltd who will assist in the establishment of a SMSF under a ‘no advice model’. You will also be referred to Stakeshop Pty Ltd to enable your trading account and bank account to be set up in order to use the Stake Website and/or App. Stakeshop Pty Ltd will also run marketing and promotions to you under. For more information about SMSFs, see our SMSF Risks page.The information on our website or our mobile application is not intended to be an inducement, offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction in which Stake is not regulated or able to market its services. At Stake and Stake Super, we’re focused on giving you a better investing experience but we don’t take into account your personal objectives, circumstances or financial needs. Any advice given by Stake is of a general nature only. As investments carry risk, before making any investment decision, please consider if it’s right for you and seek appropriate taxation and legal advice. Please view our Financial Services GuideTerms & ConditionsPrivacy Policy and Disclaimers  before deciding to invest on or use Stake or Stake Super. By using our website or service in any way, you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms & Conditions. All financial products involve risk and you should ensure you understand the risks involved as certain financial products may not be suitable to everyone. Past performance of any product described on this website is not a reliable indication of future performance. Stake and Stake Super are registered trademarks in Australia.

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