Payday

If you inverted Nike’s ($NKE) swoosh logo, you’d get something far less iconic with an uncanny resemblance to the stock’s 5-year price chart. A billion-dollar payday might help it along.

On Monday, the portal for U.S. retailers to claim tariff refunds went live, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the levies illegal. Nike could receive US$1B, according to Citigroup – modest next to Walmart’s ($WMT) estimated US$10.2B haul, with total payouts expected to top US$160B.

That’s real cash. Refunds could be used to fund buybacks, pay down debt, or flow straight into earnings down the line. But for now, investor focus is on whether the ongoing earnings season will pay off. This week, around 20% of the S&P 500 reports, including Intel ($INTC) and Tesla ($TSLA).

For Elon Musk, the stakes go well beyond a single quarter. His compensation is tied to some of the most ambitious targets in corporate history: one million robotaxis, 20 million vehicles and a US$8.5T Tesla valuation. Hit them, and his payday could reach US$1T.

At Apple ($AAPL), pay has already been front and centre. Tim Cook took home US$74.6M last year, mostly in stock. Cook took Apple’s market cap from US$350B to US$4T in his 15-year tenure. Now, with hardware chief John Ternus set to take over as CEO, the focus shifts to whether Apple can convert its US$400B revenue machine into an AI leader.

The AI world is well-acquainted with outsized paychecks. And of course, the circular funding playbook. Anthropic struck a massive deal with Amazon ($AMZN) this week, where the latter has agreed to invest up to US$25B in the Claude creator. In turn, Anthropic has agreed to spend over US$100B on Amazon’s chips over the next decade. 

Amazon’s push into healthcare is creating its own ripple effects. The company is expanding into a GLP-1 program, offering popular weight-loss drugs through Amazon Pharmacy for as low as US$25. That move knocked shares of telehealth firm Hims & Hers ($HIMS) down 4% in Tuesday’s session – a reminder that one company’s windfall can be another’s setback.

For investors, the next payday might take a little longer to arrive. After the S&P 500 hit fresh records last week, volatility made a quick return with geopolitical uncertainty. 

Timing the market is a great skill to have. But in this environment, waiting it out might have the better payoff. 

This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in the securities listed. The information presented is for general information purposes only and intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.