Moneyball

By Samy Sriram2 min read

SpaceX made history this week. But there was more than one stock on investors' radars.

Last weekend was one for the books. Surprising scorecards from the FIFA World Cup and the Knicks’ first NBA title in 53 years. But New York’s celebrations weren’t limited to the streets surrounding Madison Square Garden – although Knicks-owner Madison Square Garden Sports ($MSGS) is on a 46% YTD winning streak, even hitting a new record in the middle of the game.

Nine kilometres away, Wall Street had its own parade with less fire but more heat. SpaceX’s ($SPCX) record IPO raised US$85.7B after underwriters exercised a ‘greenshoe’ overallotment option. That meant brokers Goldman Sachs ($GS) and Morgan Stanley ($MS) had the choice to buy an additional 83.3M shares.

SpaceX now sits at a US$2.6T market cap. Shares rallied past the US$220 mark after hours on Monday, briefly overtaking Microsoft ($MSFT) as the fourth-largest company in the world. The market is also pricing in SpaceX’s US$60B acquisition of Cursor to add more AI coding power. And Elon Musk is the world’s first trillionaire with a US$1.3T net worth that exceeds the market cap of 491 stocks in the S&P 500. 

Tech and chip stocks didn’t see any liquidity drain after the mega-listing. Instead, news of a U.S.-Iran framework to end the war sent oil to a three-month low and led U.S. equities to new records. Memory stocks moved higher, led by Western Digital ($WDC), which clocked a 16% gain in Monday’s session.

Robinhood ($HOOD) briefly retook the US$100 mark for the first time since January, despite announcing a 10% workforce cut. The main catalyst is easy to see: prediction market volume has surged since the FIFA World Cup began. The harder-to-spot factor has been Robinhood insiders buying stock: Director Ricky Malka bought US$35M of $HOOD in early June.

When markets move this quickly, investors start to cut the noise with Moneyball strategies. Applied to portfolios, it's less Brad Pitt in a baseball movie and more decisions based on data.

 Finding undervalued opportunities and results with limited resources. It might just be the ultimate retail investor playbook.

This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in any of the securities listed. The information presented is for general information purposes only and intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may receive back less than your original investment. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.


Portrait photo of Samy Sriram, Markets Analyst at Stake.

Samy Sriram

Markets Analyst

Samy is a markets analyst at Stake, with seven years of experience in the world of investing, working across roles in private banking, venture capital and financial media. She has a Master’s degree in Finance and Data Analytics from The University of Sydney Business School.


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