Under the Spotlight: Venture Global ($VG)

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Venture Global’s US$58B IPO was supposed to be one of the blockbuster listings of 2025. Instead, it quickly became one of the worst performers in history.

Shares tumbled 15% in the first trading week and that momentum only worsened in the months that followed. Not the triumphant debut investors had been promised. 

But markets love a comeback story.

Shares are now up more than 120% this year, and the stock even caught the attention of CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who recently suggested it could head much higher. Take that as bullish, contrarian, or pure entertainment. Either way, Venture Global ($VG) is back on investor radars.

Part of the rebound reflects the same forces lifting the rest of the energy sector. Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices and buoyed businesses benefiting from easier shipping routes. 

But the bigger story here is scale. Global LNG demand is growing and the U.S. is emerging as the biggest winner. Venture Global is laying the groundwork to become its largest gas exporter.

American gas

The U.S. only began exporting LNG a decade ago. Today, it’s the world’s biggest exporter, overtaking Qatar and Australia in 2023. Since then, new export terminals along the Gulf Coast, and favourable policies, have cemented that position.

Against this backdrop, Venture Global has gone from a little-known startup to one of the sector’s fastest growers. Its edge came from doing something deceptively simple – building LNG plants faster and cheaper than rivals.

Instead of constructing giant bespoke terminals the traditional way, the company focused on repeatable modular construction. This cut construction times from five to seven years, to around three. It also allowed capacity to come online faster than many competitors. 

The approach has helped Venture Global scale quickly into one of the fastest-growing LNG exporters in the U.S.

Gas pedal

Venture Global’s latest results show just how quickly the company is scaling.

Revenue jumped 177% in 2025 to US$13.8B. Operating income rose 192% to US$5.2B, while adjusted EBITDA climbed nearly 200%.

Importantly, this growth wasn’t driven by higher gas prices – LNG prices actually weakened in 2025. Instead, $VG grew by increasing output. LNG cargo shipments jumped around 170%, while total energy volumes rose more than 180%, largely thanks to new production coming online.

Much of that is being driven by Plaquemines LNG, which is still ramping up and has given Venture Global rare flexibility to sell commissioning volumes into the spot market.

The next major test will be execution. The company’s CP2 export facility in Louisiana is expected to play a major role in its next growth phase. If completed as planned, Venture Global says the project could help make it the largest LNG exporter in the U.S., with capacity of up to 29 million tonnes annually. That’s roughly comparable to the scale of Cheniere Energy’s ($LNG) Sabine Pass terminal, currently one of the largest LNG export facilities in the country.

Importantly, much of that output is already tied up in long-term contracts. That gives the company something pure commodity producers rarely enjoy – clearer visibility over future revenue.

How's it valued?

As always with growth stories, valuation depends largely on what happens next.

Venture Global has forecast a potential earnings dip in 2026, although those projections were issued just as conflict in the Middle East began disrupting global energy markets. That could mean forecasts shift if prices remain elevated.

Analyst expectations are more positive. Consensus estimates from LSEG suggest EBITDA could rise about 26% this year, while revenue is forecast to climb roughly 32% to US$18.2B. That would bring it closer to the country’s top exporter Cheniere Energy, which reported roughly US$20B in revenue last year. 

On traditional valuation metrics, Venture Global sits somewhere in the middle of the pack. Its price-to-earnings ratio of 18.35 sits slightly below the broader energy sector average of near 21, although local rival Cheniere trades on a lower multiple closer to 12.

Analyst sentiment reflects that middle ground. Buy and hold ratings are fairly evenly split, with price targets sitting close to the current share price. In recent days, several major brokers have lifted these price targets. Morgan Stanley was most bullish, upgrading the firm from underweight to overweight and adding a price target of US$22 from US$8.

Still, the market appears to be waiting for proof that Venture Global can deliver on its next growth phase. 

One factor investors should keep in mind is ownership structure. Around 86% of Venture Global shares remain held by insiders, meaning only a relatively small portion of the stock is freely traded. That can amplify volatility. When the available float is limited, price moves can be sharper in both directions.

Is it a buy?

Venture Global sits between a commodity stock and an infrastructure growth story. Its shares still move with gas prices and geopolitics, but long-term contracts and expanding capacity give it a more structural growth angle.

If it executes, it could ride the U.S. LNG export boom. If not, it risks trading like any other cyclical energy name.

For investors, it comes down to whether you believe in the growth story enough to tolerate the swings that come with energy stocks.

This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in the securities listed. The information presented is intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.