Alpha Bets
Super Bowl prediction market volume tops US$500M. Alphabet sells a 100-year bond. And hyperscalers bet US$650B on AI.
The Super Bowl action this year was more exciting off the field. Prediction markets firm Kalshi recorded US$500M in trading volume tied to the game’s outcome. And another US$113M in bets on Bad Bunny’s opening song at the halftime show.
The federally regulated platform is eating into traditional U.S. sportsbooks’ market share. Under threat, DraftKings ($DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment ($FLUT) are now trading near 52-week lows.
But Kalshi’s main rival is crypto-based prediction market, Polymarket. Still in beta for U.S. users, Polymarket is another platform that lets pop-culture-based event contracts take centre stage. One of its newest markets just flipped: Alphabet ($GOOGL) has overtaken Nvidia ($NVDA) as the favourite to end 2026 as the world’s most valuable company.
The switch-up comes as Alphabet plans a mega debt issue – a seven-part bond offering that includes a rare 100-year note. The proposed US$20B bond sale has already attracted US$100B in orders.
Why take on debt of this scale? Alphabet needs to fund its planned US$185B Al capex in 2026. That higher figure likely scared off some investors: $GOOGL dropped 5% in early trading last Friday.
But Alphabet isn’t the only firm spending big on AI. When Microsoft ($MSFT) shared its US$140B capex figure for this year, shares dropped 10% in a day. Meta ($META) shares went on a roundtrip after the firm shared plans for US$135B in capex on AI – despite the firm showing that AI investments primarily drove its top-line growth.
Amazon ($AMZN) shares were also taken down after an earnings report that revealed US$200B earmarked for capex this year. In total, the big four hyperscalers are projected to spend around US$660B this year. And they’re redirecting all excess cash into AI capex, which means less money for buybacks.
In the short run, ROI timing will matter more than headline spending figures. Longer term, it’s a big trade-off in free cash flow and an even bigger bet that the AI buildout pays off.
As for which direction Wall Street’s favourite trade will take next… the dollars have spoken. If you follow the money, it could be the alpha bet of a lifetime.
This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in the securities listed. The information presented is intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.
Samy is a markets analyst at Stake, with seven years of experience in the world of investing, working across roles in private banking, venture capital and financial media. She has a Master’s degree in Finance and Data Analytics from The University of Sydney Business School.
